This gives you an idea of how challenging the problem of stabilizing carbon emissions at levels lower than twice pre-industrial actually is. One problem with the SRES scenarios—indeed, a fair criticism of them—is that they do not explicitly incorporate carbon emissions controls. While some of the scenarios involve storylines that embrace generic notions of sustainability and environmental protection, the scenarios do not envision explicit attempts to stabilize CO 2 concentrations at any particular level.
They are referred to as pathways to emphasize that they are not definitive, but are instead internally consistent time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with multiple socioeconomic scenarios. In particular, they can take into account climate change mitigation policies to limit emissions.
The scenarios are named after the approximate radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial period achieved either in the year , or at stabilization after They were created with 'integrated assessment models' that include climate, economic, land use, demographic, and energy-usage effects, whose greenhouse gas concentrations were then converted to an emissions trajectory using carbon cycle models. The RCP2.
The RCP4. The RCP8. Even the RCPs have encountered a fair bit of criticism. Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments that diverge in increasingly irreversible ways.
In simple terms, the four storylines combine two sets of divergent tendencies: one set varying between strong economic values and strong environmental values, the other set between increasing globalization and increasing regionalization. The storylines are summarized as follows Nakicenovic et al. After determining the basic features of each of the four storylines, including quantitative projections of major driving variables such as population and economic development taken from reputable international sources e.
United Nations, World Bank and IIASA , the storylines were then fully quantified using integrated assessment models, resulting in families of scenarios for each storyline. In all 40 scenarios were developed by six modelling teams. All are equally valid, with no assigned probabilities of occurrence. Six groups of scenarios were drawn from the four families: one group each in the A2, B1 and B2 families, and three groups in the A1 family, characterising alternative developments of energy technologies: A1FI fossil intensive , A1T predominantly non-fossil and A1B balanced across energy sources.
Illustrative scenarios1 were selected by the IPCC to represent each of the six scenario groups. The DDC provides quantitative listings of the SRES scenarios, as well as an interpretation - using the same simple models as were used with the IS92 scenarios above - of what these different scenarios signify for future global temperature and sea-level change.
The assumptions underlying these emissions scenarios i. The final and complete SRES scenario data can be viewed and downloaded following the link below.
Version 1. In a small number of cases slight corrections were made after the publication of the document to prevent negative emissions which occurred as a result of the standardization procedure. And the download options are varied from P to P in MP4 format. It offers multiple download options to choose from, like video formats, sizes, and resolutions up to 4K. You can even download videos with subtitles if there are subtitles attached to the videos.
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